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Working Paper

The Short-Term Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty in Uganda

ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGGREGATE POVERTY AGGREGATE POVERTY DEFICIT AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LABORERS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY AGRICULTURAL WAGE AGRICULTURAL WAGE LABOR AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICES BANANAS BEVERAGES CASH CROPS CASSAVA CENTRAL REGION CEREAL PRICES CEREALS CHANGES IN POVERTY CONFLICT CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMPTION POVERTY COOKING DOMESTIC PRICES EGGS EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES FARM HOUSEHOLDS FARMERS FATS FEEDING PROGRAMS FLOUR FOOD AID FOOD BUYERS FOOD COMMODITIES FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS FOOD CROP FOOD CROP PRODUCTION FOOD CROPS FOOD IMPORTS FOOD INSECURITY FOOD ITEMS FOOD MARKETS FOOD NEEDS FOOD POLICY FOOD POLICY RESEARCH FOOD PRICE INFLATION FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCERS FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD SALES FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY FOOD STAPLES FOOD SUBSIDIES FRUIT HOUSEHOLD BUDGET HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IFPRI INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS LIVING STANDARDS MAIZE MARKET ANALYSIS MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET FORCES MARKET PRICES MARKET REFORM MARKETING MEAT MIDDLEMEN MILK NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POOR PEOPLE POOR REGION POORER AREAS POTATO POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GAP POVERTY GAP INDEX POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INCREASE POVERTY LEVEL POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGES PRICE EFFECT PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE INDICES PRICE STABILIZATION PRICE TRENDS PRODUCER PRICE PRODUCER PRICES PRODUCTION RATIO REGION-SPECIFIC PRICE REGION-SPECIFIC PRICES REGIONAL LEVEL REGIONAL MARKETS REGIONAL PATTERN REGIONAL TRADING PARTNERS REGIONAL VARIATION RICE RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL FARM RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POOR RURAL WELFARE SAFETY NET SAFETY NET PROGRAMS SAFETY NETS SALE SOCIAL PROTECTION SPREAD STAPLE FOODS SUBSISTENCE SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTES SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SURPLUSES SWEET POTATO SWEET POTATOES TUBERS VEGETABLES WFP WHEAT WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX WHOLESALE PRICES WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Uganda
2016-05-23T14:29:50Z | 2016-05-23T14:29:50Z | 2010-02

World prices for staple foods increased between 2006 and 2008, and accelerated sharply in 2008. Initial analysis indicated that the adverse effects of higher food prices in Uganda were likely to be small because of the diversity of its staple foods, high level of food self-sufficiency, and weak links with world markets. This paper extends the previous analyses, disaggregating by regions and individual food items, using more recent price data, and estimating the impact on consumption poverty. The analysis finds that poor households in Uganda tend to be net buyers of food staples, and therefore suffer welfare losses when food prices increase. This is most pronounced in urban areas, but holds true for most rural households as well. The diversity of staple foods has not been an effective buffer because of price increases across a range of staple foods. The paper estimates that both the incidence and depth of poverty have increased -- at least in the short run -- as a result of higher food prices in 2008, increasing by 2.6 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. The increase in poverty is highest in the Northern region, which is already the poorest in Uganda. The need for mitigating social protection measures appears to be greater than previously recognized. Not only are the negative impacts larger, but they are also much more widespread geographically. This suggests the need for continued close monitoring of the situation, including monitoring the adequacy of existing safety nets and feeding programs.

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