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Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, October 2012 : Looking Ahead After a Year in Transition

accounting adverse impact agriculture average oil price balance of payment balance of payments bank liquidity banking system bill binding constraint bonds budget deficit capacity constraints capital account capital flows CDS central bank clarity commercial banks commodity prices consolidation consumer price index consumption growth CPI Credit Default Credit Default Swap credit expansion currency currency depreciations currency devaluation current account Current account balance current account deficit current account imbalances current account surpluses Current accounts debt burden debt levels depositors devaluation Developed countries developing countries Development Policy domestic consumption domestic debt domestic demand domestic demand growth Economic activity economic consequences economic contraction economic crisis economic development ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS economic environment economic growth Economic Outlook economic situation economic slowdown excess liquidity exchange rate experience of countries export competitiveness export growth export volumes exposure exposures external balance external balances external demand external financing external position external positions financial crisis financial management financial markets financial sector financial support Fiscal balance Fiscal Balances fiscal deficit fiscal deficits fiscal policies Fiscal policy fiscal position fiscal positions food price food prices Foreign Direct Investment foreign exchange foreign exchange reserves foreign inflows foreign investment foreign investors foreign reserves GDP global markets gold government debt government expenditures government financing government revenue government revenues government spending Gross Domestic Product growth rate high inflation high unemployment household income immunity immunity law import import growth imports inflation Inflation rate inflationary pressures infrastructure investments interest payments interest rate International Bank international capital international capital markets international prices international reserves international standards investment climate investment spending Labor Force labor market liberalization liquidity Loan M1 macroeconomic indicators macroeconomic management macroeconomic performance macroeconomic stability macroeconomic variables market exchange rate market rate maturities monetary conditions monetary expansion Monetary Fund monetary policies monetary policy national currency net exports nominal anchor oil economy oil export OIL EXPORTERS oil exporting countries oil exports oil importers oil price oil prices oil revenues oil sector oil supply OPEC Open market output declines pensions petroleum prices political climate political risks political turmoil political uncertainty price hikes price index price of oil private investment Private sector credit public debt public expenditure public expenditures Public Investment public investments public spending real GDP real interest real interest rates recession Regional growth remittances reserve reserve requirement reserve requirements return returns shortfalls slowdown sovereign risk structural problems structural reforms supply shocks supply side surplus sustainable growth T - BILLs T-bills tax tax collection tax revenues telecommunications total exports Total reserves trade balance trade deficit trading trading partner transition economies Treasury Treasury bills Uncertainties Uncertainty unemployment Unemployment rate Unemployment rates upward pressure wages World Development Indicators
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Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa | North Africa | Middle East
Ianchovichina, Elena | Wood, Christina | Mottaghi, Lili | Freund, Caroline
2012-12-17T17:55:53Z | 2012-12-17T17:55:53Z | 2012-10-01

The Arab Republic of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and the Republic of Yemen are recovering after a period of economic growth decelerations accompanying the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. Economic recovery was relatively quick, with industrial production recovering in a matter of months and, in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were smaller than the average growth declines observed around the year of transition during past transitions to democracy. Importantly, the growth decelerations and recovery have taken place in a weak global environment, with events in the Euro zone posing particular challenges to Tunisia, and to a lesser extent, Egypt. The report focuses on the economic developments and short-term outlook for four Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economies, Tunisia, Egypt, the Republic of Yemen and Libya. These four countries are given special attention because each of them experienced a revolution and a major political change in 2011 and is undergoing a process of political transition toward democracy. The sudden change had important economic consequences. While other countries in the Middle East and North Africa are undergoing political change, the economic ramifications were muted as compared with the changes observed in the four MENA post-revolutionary economies.

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