Tanzania : is the ugly duckling finally growing up?

Abstract

The title of this report is inspired by the great Danish author Hans Christian Andersen who in the child's tale "Den Grimme Ælling" ("The Ugly Duckling") tells the story of a particularly ugly duckling. She is so ugly, in fact, that she is despised and disliked by all other ducks and ducklings. After a long and painful period of time, however, she grows up - but not to become an ugly duck. Instead she becomes a beautiful white swan, admired by all. So Andersen's tale has a happy ending-at least as far as the ugly duckling goes. The major question tackled in this report is whether a similar fate is awaiting Tanzania. Having been something of an enfant terrible since the deep crisis in the early 1980s, economic progress since 1995 provides some hope that the duckling period is Tanzania is finally over. The study initially emerged as part of the "Emerging Africa" research program launched by the OECD's Development Centre in 1997. Comments from participants in that research program are gratefully acknowledged, particularly Jean-Claude Berthélemy (project leader), Aristomene Varoudakis and Ludvig Söderlind. Jean Bonvin, President of the Development Centre (until spring, 1999) guided the project from the start. The project was financed by generous grants from the governments of Switzerland and Belgium.

CONTENTS -- An overview of long-run economic performance and political developments -- Macroeconomic Policies to promote stability -- Structural Policies to promote long-run growth -- Public sector management and economic performance