System dynamics model of debt accumulation in developing countries: The case of Ghana and Pakistan

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a dynamic macroeconomic framework that identifies the fundamental structure of public debt accumulation process in developing countries and its two way linkages with economic growth and public finances. Within this framework, the objective of this study is to identify leverage points that may be utilized to slow down debt accumulation process without slowing down economic growth.|Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the system dynamics (SD) method to model and analyze the debt accumulation process. This method allows us to analyze the relationship between structure and behaviour of complex dynamic systems. This paper considers fiscal policy as the strategic element of the debt accumulation process and hence it considers seignorage and consequent inflation to be outside the model boundary. In other words the paper assumes that there exists an effective monetary policy that satisfies the objectives of the fiscal policy.|...