Income from International Commodity Price Windfalls and HIV Infections in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

This paper examines effects of exogenous income from international commodity price windfalls on HIV infections in a panel of sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1985-2007. The main finding is that an increase in income leads to a significant rise in HIV infections in autocratic countries while there is no significant effect in democracies. Further analysis suggests that increasing urbanisation and decreasing public health expenditure share in GDP in autocracies are the dominant channels behind such distinct comparison. After controlling for urbanisation and public health expenditure share, the effect of income on HIV infection rates shrinks drastically and is statistically insignificant.