Demography and the development potential of sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

This is one of five background papers for the White Paper on Africa that the Swedish government will submit to parliament in early 2008. It presents historical and future demographic trends in sub-Saharan African and relates them to the social and economic trends in the Sub-continent. The main analytical tool is the current theory of the demographic transition and there is an emphasis on comparing sub-Saharan Africa's development to trends in other parts of the world. There are three main conclusions: 1. Sub-Saharan Africa is currently about halfway through the transition from high to low death and birth rates. A mid-20 century reduction in death rates has generated a period of rapid population increase. Only in the last 25 years have there been clear signs of declining fertility and the decline has been slow and has a t times stalled. 2. Many of the socioeconomic trends that have characterised sub-Saharan Africa during the last decades (stagnating per capita income, high poverty...