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Nigeria's Growth Record : Dutch Disease or Debt Overhang?

ACCESS TO CAPITAL MARKETS ADVERSE IMPACT AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION ANNUAL AVERAGE RATE BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS BLACK MARKET BUDGET PROCESS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL SPENDING CASH FLOW CENTRAL BANK COMMODITY PRICES CONSUMERS COST RECOVERY DEBT DEBT BURDEN DEBT CRISIS DEBT RELIEF DEBT SERVICE DEFICIT FINANCING DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC DEBT ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ENERGY PRICES EXCHANGE RATE POLICY EXCHANGE RATES EXCHANGE RESERVES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE CUTS EXPENDITURE GROWTH EXPENDITURE PLANS EXPENDITURES EXPORTS EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL LOANS FACTOR PRICES FINANCIAL LIMITS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL DISCIPLINE FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FISCAL REFORM FISCAL REFORMS FISCAL REVENUE FISCAL RULE FISCAL SAVINGS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FOREIGN RESERVES GDP GDP PER CAPITA GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS PUBLIC DEBT INCOME INDUSTRIALIZATION INFLATION INTEREST RATES LICENSES MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MARKET ACCESS MARKET FAILURES MARKET INFORMATION MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK MINISTRY OF FINANCE NATURAL RESOURCES NET PUBLIC DEBT NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE OIL PRICES OIL WINDFALLS OVERVALUATION PER CAPITA INCOME PERMANENT INCOME PRICE INCREASES PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC PUBLIC BORROWING PUBLIC CAPITAL PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PUBLIC SPENDING REAL EXCHANGE RATE RECURRENT EXPENDITURE REFORM AGENDA REFORM EFFORTS REGULATORY AUTHORITY RELATIVE PRICES REVENUE MANAGEMENT RISK PREMIUM SOCIAL INDICATORS SPREAD STATE EXPENDITURE STATE GOVERNMENTS SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SURPLUS SURPLUSES TAX TOTAL EXPENDITURE TOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE TOTAL REVENUE TOTAL SPENDING TRANSPARENCY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VOLATILITY WAGES WEALTH
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Nigeria
2012-06-07T17:32:21Z | 2012-06-07T17:32:21Z | 2007-06

Nigeria's oil boom has not brought an end to perennial stagnation in the non-oil economy. Is this the unavoidable consequence of the resource boom or have misguided policies contributed? This paper indicates that the extreme volatility of expenditure rather than Dutch Disease effects are behind the disappointing non-oil growth record. Fiscal policies failed to smooth highly volatile oil income; on the contrary government expenditure was more volatile than oil income. The authors provide econometric evidence showing that volatility of expenditure was increased by debt overhang problems. Moreover, they also find evidence of voracity effects that exacerbated expenditure volatility prior to 1984.

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