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An Empirical Economic Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia

ADVERSE IMPACTS AGRICULTURAL INPUTS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS ATMOSPHERE CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CASSAVA CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE FORECASTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATE VARIABLES CLIMATE ZONES CLIMATES CLIMATIC RESEARCH CLIMATIC RESEARCH UNIT CLIMATOLOGY CLOUDS COMMERCIAL FARMERS COTTON CROP CROP FORECASTING CROP PRODUCTION CROP VARIETIES CROPPING CROPS CULTIVATION DESERTIFICATION DROUGHT DRY SEASON DRY SEASONS ECOLOGICAL ZONE ECOLOGICAL ZONES ECONOMIC IMPACTS FAO FARM FARM HOUSEHOLDS FARM PRODUCE FARMER FARMERS FARMING FARMING SYSTEMS FARMS FERTILIZATION FERTILIZER FISHERIES FLOODS FOOD SECURITY FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE GDP GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY GLOBAL WARMING GRAIN GRAZING GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROUNDNUTS GROWING SEASON HARVESTING HECTARES OF LAND HYDROLOGICAL DATA HYDROLOGY HYDROMETEOROLOGY IRRIGATION LABOR FORCE LAND USE LAND VALUE LANDS MAIZE MAIZE PRODUCTION MARGINAL REVENUE METEOROLOGICAL DATA METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS MILLET NATURAL RESOURCES PADDY PLANTING POLLUTANTS PRECIPITATION PRODUCE RAINFALL RAINFED AGRICULTURE RANGELAND RICE RUNOFF SATELLITES SEA SEAS SEED SEED BANKS SEED COTTON SEEDS SMALL-SCALE FARMERS SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES SOIL SOIL TYPE SOIL TYPES SOILS SORGHUM SOYA BEANS SUNFLOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURE SWEET POTATOES TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TOBACCO TOTAL REVENUE TROPICAL CLIMATE VEGETATION WATER HARVESTING WATER RESOURCES WATER SHORTAGES WEATHER WET SEASON WHEAT
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Zambia
2012-06-07T21:47:32Z | 2012-06-07T21:47:32Z | 2007-07

This report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop production in this period depends solely on rains. Considering crop progression in three stages-germination, growing, and maturing, which require different amounts of water and temperature-the climate variables included in the model are long-term averages of the temperature and wetness index for the periods November to December, January to February, and March to April. Assuming a nonlinear relationship of farm revenue with the climate variables, quadratic terms for climate variables were also included in the model. The results indicate that most socioeconomic variables are not significant, whereas some climate variables and the corresponding quadratic variables are significant in the model. Further findings are that an increase in the November-December mean temperature and a decrease in the January-February mean rainfall have negative impacts on net farm revenue, whereas an increase in the January-February mean temperature and mean annual runoff has a positive impact.

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