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Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2013 : Growing Tensions in a Resilient Economy

ACCOUNTING ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ARREARS ASSETS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT BALANCE SHEETS BANK LENDING BANK LOANS BANKING SECTOR BANQUE DU LIBAN BASIS POINT BASIS POINTS BENEFICIARIES BILL BOND MARKET BOND YIELDS BUDGET DEFICIT BUFFERS BUSINESS CONFIDENCE CAPITAL GAINS CAPITAL INFLOWS CASH PAYMENT CENTRAL BANK CHECKS CIVIL SERVICE COMMERCIAL BANKS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPETITIVENESS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION DEMANDS CORE INFLATION CORPORATE PROFITS COST OF IMPORTS COST OF LIVING COUNTRY DEBT CREDIT RATING CREDIT RISK CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT RATIO DEBT REDUCTION DEBT SERVICE DEBT STOCK DEBT STRUCTURE DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DERIVATIVES DISBURSEMENTS DISPOSABLE INCOME DISTORTIONS DOMESTIC CURRENCY DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY DOMESTIC INFLATION DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DOMESTIC PRICES DOWNWARD PRESSURE ECONOMIC DEMAND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN EDUCATION SYSTEM EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES EMERGING MARKETS ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ENTREPRENEURSHIP EUROBOND EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE RISK EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL INDEBTEDNESS FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL BURDEN FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FOREIGN INFLOWS GDP GOVERNMENT DEFICIT GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE HOUSEHOLDS HOUSING HUMAN CAPITAL IMPORT IMPORT GROWTH IMPORTS INCOME GROUPS INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATIONS INFLATION RATE INFLATION RATES INFLATIONARY PRESSURES INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS INSURANCE INTEREST INCOME INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE SPREADS INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INTEREST INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL PRICES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTMENT DECISION INVESTOR CONFIDENCE JOB CREATION LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR MOBILITY LAWS LIQUIDITY LIVING ADJUSTMENT LOCAL BUSINESSES LONG-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT M3 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET CAPITALIZATION MARKET ENTRY MARKET SHARE MARKET YIELDS MATURITIES MIGRATION MINIMUM WAGE MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY MULTIPLIERS NATIONAL INCOME NET EXPORTS NOMINAL WAGES OUTPUT GAP PEG PENSION PENSION REFORMS PENSION SYSTEM PENSIONS PLEDGES POLICY RESPONSES POLITICAL INSTABILITY POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE INDEX PRIVATE BANKS PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT PRODUCTION DISRUPTIONS PRODUCTIVITY PROFITABILITY PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SERVICES PURCHASING POWER RE-EXPORTS REAL ESTATE REAL GDP RECEIPTS REFUGEE REFUGEES REGISTRATION FEES REMITTANCES RESERVE ACCUMULATION RETURN RISK EXPOSURE RISK PERCEPTIONS SAFETY NET SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SHORT-TERM CAPITAL SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT SLOW GROWTH SLOWDOWN SOCIAL INSURANCE SYSTEM SOCIAL NETWORKS SOCIAL SAFETY NETS SPARE CAPACITY STOCK EXCHANGE STOCK MARKET STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS SUPPLY SIDE SURPLUS T-BOND TAX TAX REVENUES TAX SYSTEM TOTAL DEPOSITS TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT TOTAL IMPORT TOTAL REVENUE TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE UNIONS TRADING TRANSPORT TREASURY TREASURY BONDS TUITION UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UPWARD PRESSURE WEIGHTS YIELD CURVE YIELD SPREAD
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Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa | Lebanon
2015-05-21T17:08:19Z | 2015-05-21T17:08:19Z | 2013-04

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.

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