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Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach

ADVANCED COUNTRIES AGRICULTURE ARRANGEMENT BASE YEAR CAPITAL-LABOR RATIO COAUTHORS COMMODITIES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY CONSTANT PRICES CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CURRENCY DATA ELEMENTS DATA SET DATA SETS DESCRIPTION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER DOMAIN DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURES ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS EQUILIBRIUM THEORY EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR COMPONENTS FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FOREIGN TRADE FUNCTIONAL FORM FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDP DEFLATOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH EPISODES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HISTORICAL DATA INCOMES INDEXES INDICES INDUSTRIALIZATION INEQUALITY INFORMATION PROCESSING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS MACROECONOMICS MANUFACTURING MANUSCRIPT MEAN VALUE MEASUREMENT ERROR MODEL ESTIMATION NATIONAL INCOME NATIONAL OUTPUT NORMAL DISTRIBUTION NOTATION NOTATIONS OBSERVED CHANGES OPEN ACCESS OPEN ECONOMY OPTIMIZATION OUTPUTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY FORMULATION POLICY RESEARCH PRICE CHANGES PRICE SERIES PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION STRUCTURE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTOTYPE REGIONAL ACCOUNTS REGIONAL LEVEL RELATIVE PRICES RELIABILITY RESULT RESULTS SAVINGS SERIES DATA SMALL ECONOMIES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE TARGETS TAX TAX RATES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE STRUCTURE TRANSACTION USES VALUE ADDED VALUE ADDED SERVICES WEB WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Africa | East Asia and Pacific | Sub-Saharan Africa | Korea, Republic of
2015-02-03T16:15:27Z | 2015-02-03T16:15:27Z | 2015-01

This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the model may have shifted over time to contribute to the generation of historically observed changes in the economic arrangement. In this approach, the parameters in a computable general equilibrium model are treated as fixed but unobserved, represented as prior mean values with prior error mass functions. Estimation of the parameters involves using an information-theoretic Bayesian approach to exploit additional information in the form of new data from a series of social accounting matrices, which are assumed were measured with error. The estimation procedure is "efficient" in the sense that it uses all available information and makes no assumptions about unavailable information. As illustration, the methodology is applied to estimate the parameters of a computable general equilibrium model using alternative data sets for the Republic of Korea and Sub-Saharan Africa.

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