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Working Paper

Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses

OIL IMPORTERS TIME HORIZON AUTOMOBILE AUTO PRODUCTION CANE ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE ANIMAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION STRUCTURAL CHANGE VEHICLES ACTIVITIES TRADE BARRIERS OIL OUTPUT OIL SUPPLY EXPORTS WOOD PRODUCTS ELASTICITY EXPORTERS WELFARE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EQUILIBRIUM GAS BARRELS PER DAY CRUDE OIL EXTRACTION PRICE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT TAX DOMESTIC OIL INPUTS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION PAYMENTS MARKET ACCESS AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES CENTRAL BANK OILS OIL PRICES PETROLEUM TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OIL DEMAND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS GLOBAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS COSTS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES PER CAPITA INCOME OIL TRADE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS OIL ACCOUNTS TRADING BLOCS BASE YEAR PRODUCTIVITY WATER DOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTION GAS TECHNOLOGY MARKETS WTO OIL IMPORTS WORLD PRICES TRUE SUGAR CANE IMPORTS AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT UTILITY SUPPLY RESPONSE TAXES AUTOMOBILES BORDER TRADE CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM DRIVING TRAVEL TRANSPORTATION OIL MARKET CAPITAL WAGES GLOBAL MARKET POLICIES FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE CARS POWER COMPETITIVENESS ELECTRICITY PRICE OF OIL PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION WORLD ECONOMY DEMAND OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES UTILITY FUNCTION OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE EXCESS DEMAND MOTOR VEHICLES CHEMICAL PRODUCTS OIL EXPORTS TARIFF BARRIERS NET OIL BENCHMARK EXPORT REVENUE CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL USE TRADE WORLD PRICE FOREIGN COMPETITION NATURAL GAS AIR TRANSPORT GDP GOODS THEORY BILATERAL TRADE OIL EXPORTERS INVESTMENT COAL TARIFF SUPPLY CRUDE OIL SEA TRANSPORT TARIFFS ON IMPORTS REGIME CHANGE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TRANSPORT COSTS OUTCOMES TRADING PARTNERS OIL USE TRADE REGIME EXPORT COMMODITY PRICES APPROACH BENEFITS ECONOMIES ENERGY DEVELOPMENT POLICY
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa | Iran, Islamic Republic of
2016-02-03T20:00:34Z | 2016-02-03T20:00:34Z | 2016-02

This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.

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