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The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly

ABSENTEEISM ACCESS TO CONDOMS AGED AVERAGE COSTS CONDOM USE CONDOMS DECISION MAKING DISCOUNT RATES DISTORTIONARY EFFECTS DISTRIBUTION OF CONDOMS DRUG USE DRUG USERS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LITERATURE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EPIDEMICS EQUILIBRIUM EXPENDITURES FORECASTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE HARM REDUCTION HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS HEALTH SERVICES HIV HOSPITALS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INFORMATION PROBLEMS INJECTING DRUG USERS INSURANCE INSURANCE MARKETS INTERVENTION INTRAVENOUS DRUG USERS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LABOR SUPPLY LOW PREVALENCE MARITAL SEX MIGRANTS MIGRATION MORBIDITY NEEDLE SHARING NEEDLES NEW INFECTIONS NUTRITIONAL STATUS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PATIENTS POLICY RESEARCH PRESENT VALUE PREVENTIVE ACTIVITIES PREVENTIVE BEHAVIORS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROSTITUTES REAL GDP REFUGEES RISK AVERSION RISK FACTORS RISK OF TRANSMISSION SAFE NEEDLES SAFETY SAVINGS SCHOOLS SCREENING SEX WITH MEN SEX WORKERS SEXUAL CONTACTS SEXUAL INTERCOURSE SEXUAL PARTNERS SEXUAL TRANSMISSION SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES SINGLE PARENTS SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL COSTS SOCIAL WELFARE STDS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSMISSION TROUGH UNAIDS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UTILITY FUNCTION WELFARE GAINS WORKERS WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME HIV VIRUSES IMPACT ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT RISK ASSESSMENT ECONOMIC IMPACT DISEASE TRANSMISSION EPIDEMICS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT CONDOM PROMOTION DRUG UTILIZATION INSURANCE VALUES SOCIAL WELFARE
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa
2014-08-05T21:31:20Z | 2014-08-05T21:31:20Z | 2002-08

The authors develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP.

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