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How Significant is Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE BASE YEAR BENCHMARK CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL STOCK CONSTANT RATE CONSUMPTION GROWTH CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES DAMAGES DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING COUNTRY ECONOMIES DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH DIVIDEND DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC SAVINGS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTREME POVERTY FERTILITY RATES FORECASTS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN INVESTMENT FUNCTIONAL FORM FUTURE GROWTH GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL EXPORTS GLOBAL INVESTMENT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS GROWTH OF LABOR GROWTH PATH GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH TERM GROWTH THEORY HEADCOUNT POVERTY HIGH GROWTH HIGH INCOME HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME GROWTH INCOMES INCREASE IN CAPITAL INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INEQUALITY OUTCOMES LABOR DEMAND LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE GROWTH LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES LEVEL OF EDUCATION LIC LONG RUN LOW INCOME LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION MARGINAL PROPENSITY MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO CONSUME MARKET PRICES MEAN INCOME MICRO DATA MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL RESOURCES OUTPUT GROWTH OUTPUT PER CAPITA PER CAPITA GROWTH PERFECT COMPETITION POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POOR GOVERNANCE POPULATION SHARE POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LINE POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE SAVING PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RAPID GROWTH REAL GDP REAL GROWTH RATE REAL INCOME REDUCING POVERTY REGIONAL ECONOMY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS SHARE OF LABOR SKILLED WORKER SKILLED WORKERS STATE INTERVENTIONS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UNSKILLED LABOR URBANIZATION VALUE ADDED VOLATILITY WAGES
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa
2014-12-12T21:26:12Z | 2014-12-12T21:26:12Z | 2014-12

Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11 to 15 percent of gross domestic product volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become much more substantial with even better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50 percent between 2011 and 30, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22 percent by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people.

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