A short note on Kenya and early warning signals

Abstract

The Kenya crisis came largely as a surprise, at least to outsiders. Was it possible to see it coming? Is Kenya a special case, or are there reasons to expect similar crises in other ”stable” African nations with politics, ethnicity and inequality forming an explosive blend? This short exploratory note will approach these questions by taking a look at opinion poll datafrom the Afrobarometer 2005 and 2003. Were any signals of what was coming already there,before our eyes?