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What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010?

ADULTS AGE DISTRIBUTION AGE GROUPS AGE-GROUP AGED AVAILABILITY OF FAMILY PLANNING AVERAGE AGE BASIC EDUCATION BIRTH COHORT BIRTH CONTROL CARE OF CHILDREN CHANGES IN FERTILITY CHILD BEARING CHILD DEATHS CHILD MORTALITY CHILD MORTALITY RATES CHILD REARING CHILDHOOD CHILDREN PER WOMAN COMMUNITY HEALTH CONTRACEPTION CONTRACEPTION USE DECLINE IN FERTILITY DECLINES IN FERTILITY DEMAND FOR FAMILY PLANNING DEMAND FOR FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHY DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMIC CHANGE ECONOMIC CHANGES ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC STATUS EDUCATED MOTHERS EDUCATED WOMEN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FAMILIES FAMILY PLANNING FAMILY PLANNING INFORMATION FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES FAMILY RESPONSIBILITIES FEMALE EDUCATION FEMALE LABOR FORCE FEMALE LITERACY FERTILITY FERTILITY BEHAVIOR FERTILITY DECLINE FERTILITY DECLINES FERTILITY LEVELS FERTILITY RATE FERTILITY RATES FERTILITY TRANSITION FERTILITY TRANSITIONS FEWER BIRTHS FEWER CHILDREN FEWER YEARS OF EDUCATION FIRST BIRTH FIRST MARRIAGE GENERATIONS GENOCIDE HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE HEALTHY CHILDREN HIGH CHILD MORTALITY HIGH FERTILITY LEVELS HOUSEHOLD LEVEL HUMAN CAPITAL IMPACT OF FAMILY PLANNING IMPACT ON FERTILITY INCOME-GENERATING ACTIVITIES KNOWLEDGE OF CONTRACEPTION LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR SUPPLY LEVELS OF EDUCATION LEVELS OF FERTILITY LIFETIME FERTILITY LIVE BIRTHS LIVING STANDARDS LOW FERTILITY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOWER FERTILITY MARITAL STATUS MASS MEDIA MODERN CONTRACEPTION MORTALITY MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL FAMILY PLANNING NUMBER OF CHILDREN OLDER WOMEN PARENTS PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT POPULATION ASSOCIATION POPULATION CHANGE POPULATION DYNAMICS POPULATION GROWTH POSTERS PRIMARY SCHOOL PROGRESS PUBLIC POLICY RADIO REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH SCHOOL AGE SCHOOLS SECONDARY SCHOOL SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL CHANGE SOCIAL NORMS STD TELEVISION TOTAL FERTILITY RATE TOTAL FERTILITY RATES UNWANTED PREGNANCIES USE OF CONTRACEPTION WOMAN WORLD POPULATION YOUNG WOMEN YOUNGER WOMEN YOUTH
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Rwanda
2014-05-15T18:16:08Z | 2014-05-15T18:16:08Z | 2014-01

Following a decade-and-a-half stall, fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010. Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this paper finds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohort effects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewer children than older cohorts observed at the same age. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied on two successive rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. The findings show that improved female education levels account for the largest part of the fertility decline, with improving household living standards and the progressive move toward non-agricultural employment being important secondary drivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salient for the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline can be fully explained by changes in underlying determinants, most notably the large increase in educational attainment between 2005 and 2010.

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