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Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note

Nigeria : Where Has All the Growth Gone?

ABSOLUTE POVERTY ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINE ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME BASIC NEEDS CALORIC INTAKE CASH TRANSFERS CHANGES IN POVERTY CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMPTION DATA CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE CONSUMPTION MEASURE CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CORRELATES OF POVERTY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION DATA QUALITY DATA SETS DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION DROP IN POVERTY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIC POLICY EDUCATION LEVEL EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE ESTIMATION METHOD EXCHANGE RATE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION EXTREME POVERTY FINANCIAL SECTOR FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD SUPPLY GENDER BIAS GINI INDEX GROWTH RATES HEADCOUNT POVERTY HEALTH CARE HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD HEAD HOUSEHOLD HEAD AGE HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HOUSING HUMAN CAPITAL IMPACT ON POVERTY INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME GROWTH INCOME POVERTY INCOME REDISTRIBUTION INCREASING INEQUALITY INEQUALITY INEQUALITY COMPONENT INEQUALITY CONSTANT INEQUALITY MEASURES INFANT MORTALITY INFANT MORTALITY RATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE LABOR FORCE MALNUTRITION MATERNAL MORTALITY MEDIUM TERM MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY HEADCOUNT NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE NEGATIVE IMPACT NON-OIL TRADE NUTRITION PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION POLITICAL REGIONS POOR POOR AREA POOR HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION SHARE POST HARVEST POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY CHANGES POVERTY DATA POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GAP POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY INCREASE POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINES POVERTY MAPPING POVERTY OUTCOMES POVERTY POVERTY POVERTY PROFILE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY SEVERITY PRIMARY EDUCATION PROGRAMS PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT REDUCING POVERTY REDUCTION IN POVERTY REGIONAL RESULTS RELATIVE POSITION RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL DIVIDE RURAL GAP RURAL LEVEL RURAL POVERTY RURAL POVERTY REDUCTION SAMPLE SIZE SANITATION SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOLING SECONDARY SCHOOLING SELF-EMPLOYMENT SERVICE DELIVERY SPATIAL DIMENSION SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION SUSTAINABLE POVERTY SUSTAINABLE POVERTY REDUCTION TARGETING UNEMPLOYMENT URBAN AREAS URBAN POVERTY WAGE EMPLOYMENT WELFARE DISTRIBUTION WELFARE IMPROVEMENTS WELFARE MEASURE WELFARE MEASURES
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Washington, DC
Africa | Nigeria
2014-08-14T20:02:38Z | 2014-08-14T20:02:38Z | 2013-08-30

This policy note will focus on the poverty trends in Nigeria using the National Living Standard Survey (NLSS) 2004 and Harmonized Nigeria Living Standard Survey (HNLSS) 2010 only. In the last decade, Nigeria has enjoyed a stable and sustained growth in a context of responsible macroeconomic management, economic stability, democracy, and reform. Nonetheless, results from household surveys conducted during the same period seem to be at odd with this particularly positive growth story: poverty declined only by two percentage points between 2004 and 2010. Poverty levels may be lower and poverty reduction faster than the official estimates suggest. Simulations and sensitivity check confirm this hypothesis and call for additional work to consolidate poverty analysis in Nigeria. An important step in this direction is increasing the collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics regarding data collection and data management. There are, however, several results from this policy note that seems to stand on solid ground. First, the historical disparities between the North and the South (more specifically South-West) appear to have remained unchanged. Second, inequality explains part of the limited poverty reduction. Third, there is evidence of structural changes in the economy. Labor absorption provides interesting insights. Larger fractions of the working age population have moved out of agriculture and joined the self-employed sector. To make faster progress in poverty reduction, Nigeria needs a game changing strategy if substantial progress has to be made in meeting the global goals of reducing extreme poverty to three percent in 2030.

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