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How Vulnerable Are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?

agricultural commodities Agricultural Economics Agricultural Price Agricultural Prices Agriculture annual growth barley prices beef bill bills bread Central Bank cereal imports commodities commodity commodity markets Commodity price commodity prices consumer price consumer price index consumer prices consumption basket core inflation corn corn prices currency customs duties dependency ratios depreciation developing countries developing economies domestic consumption domestic currency domestic demand domestic exchange domestic exchange rate domestic inflation domestic market domestic markets Domestic price Domestic price levels domestic prices Economic Developments Economic Policy edible oils effective exchange rate Energy Prices exchange rate exchange rate choice exchange rate fluctuations exchange rate shocks exchange rates exogenous factors expenditures exposure external factors Famine financial crisis Fiscal Balances fiscal deficits food availability Food Chain food consumption food crisis food demand food exports Food Grains food imports food insecurity food markets Food Policy Food Policy Research Food Price food price analysis food price controls food price inflation food price subsidies food prices food product food products food reserves food security food subsidies food subsidy foodstuff gauge gold government debt government interventions grain prices grain reserves grains growth rates IFPRI import import demand import prices import protection income incomes inflation expectations inflation rates inflationary expectations inflationary pressures international commodity prices International Financial Statistics International Food Policy Research Institute international market international markets international price International prices international reserves Low-income Countries macroeconomic indicators macroeconomic management market conditions market distortions market exchange rates market information market infrastructure meat nominal exchange rate Oil Exporters oil exporting countries Oil Importers oil prices oil products olive oil palm oil particular country Political Economy population growth price control price controls price decrease Price Distortions price fluctuations price increase price increases price index Price Instability price level price levels price movements price policies price risk price stability Price Trends price volatility producer prices public policy regional trade retail retail price rice risk management savings seasonal factors shortfalls sorghum soybean stock management subsidy policies sugar sugar price sugar prices supply chain supply curve tax total imports transaction costs Uncertainty wheat wholesale markets wholesale price world price world prices

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World Bank, Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa | North Africa | Middle East
2012-12-12T16:24:21Z | 2012-12-12T16:24:21Z | 2012-03

This paper presents new estimates of pass-through coefficients from international to domestic food prices by country in the Middle East and North Africa. The estimates indicate that, despite the use of food price subsidies and other government interventions, a rise in global food prices is transmitted to a significant degree into domestic food prices in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, although cross-country variation is significant. In nearly all countries, domestic food prices are highly downwardly rigid. The finding of asymmetric price transmission suggests that not only international food price levels matter, but also food price volatility. High food pass-through tends to increase inflation pressures, where food consumption shares are high. Domestic factors, often linked to storage, logistics, and procurement, have also played a major role in explaining high food inflation in the majority of countries in the region.


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