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New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

AGRICULTURAL SECTORS AGRICULTURE ARIMA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BUSINESSES CALIBRATION CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CC CD CHECKS COMMERCIAL BANKS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CUSTOM CUSTOMS DATA LIMITATIONS DEBT DECISION MAKING DEPOSITS DERIVATIVES DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC INDEX ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC THEORY ELECTRICITY EMPLOYEE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUIPMENT EXPATRIATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES FORECASTS GDP GNP GOVERNMENT REVENUES GRANGER CAUSALITY GROWTH RATE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INFLATION INSURANCE INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INVESTMENT DECISIONS LABOR FORCE SURVEYS LABOR MARKET LEADING INDICATORS M2 M3 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MANUFACTURING MARKETING MINIMIZATION MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY NET EXPORTS OPEN ACCESS PERSONAL INCOME PRICE DYNAMICS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT PROPERTY TAX PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE RAW DATA REAL ESTATE REAL GDP REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REAL_ESTATE REFUGEES REGISTRATION FEES RELIABILITY REMITTANCES RESULT RESULTS RETAIL TRADE RETURN RETURNS SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL STANDARD DEVIATION STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE TELECOM TIME SERIES TRADE SECTOR TRANSFER PAYMENTS UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VARIABLE INTEREST RATE WEB
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa | Lebanon
2014-08-15T18:18:54Z | 2014-08-15T18:18:54Z | 2014-06

Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available.

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