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Rising Tempers, Rising Temperatures : A Look at Climate Change, Migration and Conflict and the Implications for Youth in the Sahel Region

ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE JOBS CIVIL CONFLICT FINANCIAL SERVICES ECONOMIC GROWTH LOCAL CAPACITY TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION REGIONAL STRATEGY LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS MIGRATION POLICY INCOME RAINFALL PATTERNS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TERRORIST EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS LOCAL GOVERNMENTS CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES GOOD GOVERNANCE LIFE SKILLS NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT SURFACE WATER LEGAL STATUS GOVERNMENT CAPACITY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TECHNICAL SKILLS MODELS PUBLICATIONS CLIMATE-RELATED DISASTER CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE SOCIAL PROGRAMS VULNERABILITY SCARCITIES EXTREME WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES INEQUITIES KNOWLEDGE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE ARMED CONFLICT LABOR MARKET URBAN MIGRATION HUMAN SECURITY DISEASES PER CAPITA INCOME TROPICS TRAINING DRUG TRAFFICKING FORCED MIGRATION IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION GROWTH REGIONAL CLIMATE FLOODS CAPACITY AVERAGE RAINFALL DEMOCRACY MIGRATION NATURAL DISASTERS RAINFALL NUMBER OF MIGRANTS LAND DEGRADATION DISASTERS POPULATION MIGRATION SEASONAL RAINFALL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE MIGRANTS NATURAL RESOURCES PRECIPITATION UNEP HOUSEHOLD ASSETS FINANCE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CLIMATE TRENDS PROGRESS CLIMATE VARIABILITY MIGRATION FLOWS UNEMPLOYMENT FOOD SECURITY CLIMATE-CHANGE POLICIES ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SCIENCE DROUGHT IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME EVENTS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS RAPID POPULATION GROWTH URBAN CENTERS CLIMATE CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS WORKSHOP PUSH FACTOR POPULATION DENSITY URBAN AREAS CLIMATE RISK COLORS SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE SOCIAL DIMENSIONS INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY CLIMATE CHANGES POPULATIONS MARKET SECURITY THREAT MALARIA WEATHER PATTERNS POLICY LIFESTYLES CENTURY TEMPERATURES RISK FACTORS EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE MINORITY CLIMATIC CHANGE DESERTIFICATION WARS LOCAL COMMUNITIES WAR CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT ASYLUM AMOUNT OF RAINFALL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION RURAL AREAS INDIGENOUS PEOPLES TEMPERATURES YOUNG PEOPLE RAIN POPULATION MEAN TEMPERATURE CIVIL WAR SCARCE RESOURCES EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS POPULATION DATA RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PREVENTION STRATEGIES POPULATION INCREASES PEACE POLITICAL INSTABILITY ECONOMIC CONDITIONS CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS NEGATIVE IMPACTS DEVELOPMENT POLICY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Africa
2016-03-03T18:23:57Z | 2016-03-03T18:23:57Z | 2014-03

Section one of the papers provides a brief overview of the relationship between the Sahel region of Africa and climate variability trends and predictions, ultimately posing the primary research question of the study: Is the Sahel region more likely to have a higher probability of conflict and migration as a result of climate change and climate change-related events? In section two, research and analysis aim to identify causal paths between climate change, migration, and conflict via structural equation modeling focusing on recent climate change trends in the Africa and Sahel regions, particularly changes in temperature and rainfall, and analyzing the consequences of this climate variabil¬ity, namely migration and conflict. Section three brings the aspect of youth into the analysis, arguing that youth living in the rural Sahel region will likely find themselves particularly vulnerable to in¬creased climate change and variability, which will have direct and indirect implications on the security and livelihoods of these individuals. The paper explores the past, current and predicted issues faced by rural Sahel youth affected by the impacts of climate change, such as chronic unemployment and engagement in the illicit sector due to rural to urban migration from regions affected by drought, desertification and resource scarcity. The final section of the paper offers policy recommen¬dations for addressing negative climate-change related consequences through two key paths of intervention: (i) climate change adaptation measures and (ii) conflict and crime prevention measures.

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