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The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES ADVERSE EFFECT ADVERSE EFFECTS AGED AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE AIRPORT AIRPORTS AVIAN INFLUENZA BARS BEER BEVERAGES BORDER TRAFFIC BOTTLED WATER BOTTLENECKS BREWERY CANDLES CAPITAL FLIGHT CASSAVA CENTRAL BANK COCOA CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONTAGION CONTAINERS CROSSINGS DEMAND FOR FOOD DIESEL DISEASE DISEASE OUTBREAKS DISEASE SURVEILLANCE DISEASES DOMESTIC TRANSPORT DOMESTIC TRAVEL EBOLA EBOLA VIRUS ECONOMIC FORECASTING ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RISK ECONOMIC SECTORS EDIBLE OILS EMERGENCY MEASURES EMERGENCY RESPONSE EMERGENCY TREATMENT EPIDEMIC EPIDEMICS EXCHANGE RATES EXPORTS FAMILIES FOOD IMPORTS FOOD INSECURITY FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD RATIONS FOOD SECURITY FOOD STAPLES FOOD STOCKS FOODS FORECASTS FRUIT FUEL FUEL PRICES GDP GROWTH RATE HAZARD HEALTH CARE HEALTH SERVICES HEALTH WORKERS HOSPITALS INFECTION INFLATION INFLUENZA INFLUENZA CONTROL INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL IRON ISOLATION LEADING INDICATORS MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITY MALNUTRITION MARKETING MIGRATION MOBILITY MORBIDITY MORTALITY NURSES NUTRITION OILS & FATS PALM OIL PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS PASSENGERS PATIENTS PER CAPITA INCOME PLASTICS PRICE INCREASES PUBLIC HEALTH REAL GDP RESTAURANTS RICE ROAD ROOMS RUBBER SAFETY SOFT DRINKS SPILLOVER IMPACTS TAX TAX REVENUE TAXIS TOLL TOTAL REVENUE TRAFFIC TRANSIT TRANSIT TRADE TRANSPORT TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORTATION TRAVELERS TREATMENT TRUE VICTIMS WFP WHEAT WORKERS WORLD FOOD PROGRAM
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Washington, DC
Africa | Guinea | Liberia | Sierra Leone
2014-09-17T20:19:59Z | 2014-09-17T20:19:59Z | 2014-09-17

The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa has taken a horrible human toll. Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes elsewhere. As of September 10, 2014, there had been 2,281 recorded deaths out of 4,614 suspected or confirmed cases of Ebola. Experts fear that the true numbers may be two to four times larger, due to underreporting. Misery and suffering have been intense, especially in Liberia where doctors have had to turning patients away for lack of space in Ebola treatment centers. Inevitably, before the outbreak is contained the human impacts will increase considerably over these numbers. Epidemiological estimates are acknowledged as highly uncertain and are not the subject of this note. What is certain is that limiting the human cost will require significant financial resources and a concerted partnership between international partners and the affected countries. Particularly in Liberia and Sierra Leone, government capacity is already overrun and the epidemic is impacting macroeconomic activity and budgetary resources. This note informs the response to the epidemic by estimating these macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to plan the economic assistance that must accompany the immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help affected countries to recover and return to the robust economic growth they had experienced until the offset of this crisis.

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