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Economic & Sector Work

Rwanda Economic Update, No. 7 : Managing Uncertainty for Growth and Poverty Reduction

accounting agricultural practices Agriculture arrears auction balance of payments bank assets Bank Deposit banking sector base year basket composition basket of goods bids bilateral exchange rate bilateral exchange rates bond bond issuance bonds Budget execution budget implications budgetary support budgeting capacity constraints capital adequacy Capital Expenditure capital goods capital grants capital market capital market development commercial banks commodity prices competitiveness consolidation Constant value consumer basket Consumer goods Consumer Price Index consumption basket consumption growth core inflation coupon coupon rate credit growth debt decentralization Deficits Deflation deposit depreciation development strategy disbursement Diversification of exports domestic borrowing domestic currency domestic demand domestic price domestic price level durable durable goods Economic Development Economic Developments economic growth Economic Outlook economic slowdown Effective Exchange Rate equipment Exchange Rate exchange rate flexibility Exchange rate policies Exchange Rate Policy exchange rate regime Exchange rate volatility exchange rates Expenditure expenditures export capacity export commodities export competitiveness export growth export performance external demand external trade feasibility studies finances financial crisis financial management financial market Financial Sector Financial Sector Development fiscal deficit fiscal policy fixed capital food price food prices foreign currency Foreign direct investment foreign exchange foreign exchange markets Foreign financing GDP Gini coefficient global demand government consumption Government expenditure government investment government spending Gross Domestic Product gross fixed capital formation Gross value growth projections growth rate growth rates Import import demand Import growth import prices imports Inflation Inflation measures inflation objectives inflation rate Inflation rates inflationary pressure information system information technology instrument insurance Interest payments Interest Rates International Development international price international prices international reserves international trade Investment Policy investment projects issuances land holdings leading indicators liquidity liquidity management loan local government low-income countries macroeconomic performance Macroeconomic stability Macroeconomics market information market participants maturity Mineral prices Monetary Fund monetary policy monetary policy transmission mechanism Monetary Sector National Bank National Investment Net exports nominal depreciation nominal exchange rate nonperforming loans Oil Price oil prices other currencies outturn Poverty Reduction Price fluctuations price indexes price inflation price of oil price volatility private consumption private investment private sector productivity public expenditure public investment Real Effective Exchange Rate real effective exchange rates real exchange rate real GDP Recurrent expenditure relative price relative weights reserves Risk Management Risk transfer shortfall shortfalls slow growth stable exchange rate stable growth standard deviation Structural reforms supply side T-bill T-bill rate Tax Tax revenue Tax revenues Total export total exports total investment total output Total revenue trade balance trade deficit Trade Deficits Trade Statistics trading trading partner trading partners Treasury Treasury bills Treasury-bill rate turnover Uncertainty underdeveloped financial market value added Wages weights
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Kigali, Rwanda
Africa | Rwanda
2015-03-09T20:24:14Z | 2015-03-09T20:24:14Z | 2015-02

The Rwanda Economic Update reports on and synthesizes recent economic developments and places them in a medium-term and global context. It analyzes the implications of these developments and policies for the outlook for Rwanda s economy. Rwanda s economic growth recovered in the first three quarters of 2014. The economy grew 7.1 percent. Faster GDP growth reflected higher growth of the services sector, at 9.1 percent, up from 5.4 percent in 2013, when the economy suffered from the lagged impact of the 2012 aid shortfall. The first section on macroeconomic issues of this edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines two key questions: What led to the growth recovery in the first three quarters of 2014, and what are growth prospects for 2014, 2015, and 2016? The growth recovery mainly reflected increased government expenditure, which boosted domestic demand such as private consumption and investment. The expansion of domestic demand was partially offset by lower external demand for Rwanda s traditional commodities. Higher government expenditure contributed to growth recovery in the services sector through government consumption of private services. Inflation declined throughout 2014, reflecting lower growth in import prices. The recent decline in oil prices is expected to contribute not only to lower inflation but also to more stable exchange rate, an improved balance of payments, and smaller electricity subsidies. The special focus section of this report identifies and quantifies risks in the agriculture sector, with targeted interventions that complement the lessons learned under PSTA 2/CAADP 1 to more effectively manage these risks and to achieve further growth in the agriculture sector.

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