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Working Paper

Welfare Dynamics with Synthetic Panels : The Case of the Arab World in Transition

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY CAPITA INCOME POVERTY LINE ECONOMIC GROWTH NON-POOR GROUP PRO- POOR INCOME POVERTY ECONOMIC LITERATURE INCOME NORMAL DISTRIBUTION SCHOOLING POVERTY RATES INCOME REGIONS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE NATIONAL POVERTY LINE REGIONAL LEVEL TOTAL POVERTY CONSUMPTION DATA DEVELOPING COUNTRIES NATIONAL POVERTY POLICY DISCUSSIONS POOR PEOPLE EXTREME POVERTY LINE ESTIMATION RESULTS ANNUAL GROWTH DISAGGREGATED LEVEL CONSUMPTION GROWTH MEASURES NATIONAL POVERTY LINES REGION POVERTY REDUCTION ECONOMIC ACTIVITY PER CAPITA INCOMES PRO-POOR MEASURING POVERTY PER CAPITA INCOME POPULATION GROUP DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HOUSEHOLD HEAD FOOD POVERTY LINE INCOME CHANGE INCOME INEQUALITY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS DATA QUALITY POVERTY INCIDENCE INTERNATIONAL POVERTY LINE HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION HOUSEHOLD INCOME POVERTY STATUS CHRONIC POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE CAPITA INCOMES SOCIAL PROTECTION INCOME LEVELS PRODUCT POOR GROWTH WELFARE INDICATORS CHANGES IN POVERTY HOUSEHOLD HEADS REGIONAL POPULATION MARKET ECONOMIES FOOD ITEMS DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH REGIONAL ANALYSIS POVERTY LINES CONSUMPTION HUMAN CAPITAL REGIONAL AVERAGE REDUCING POVERTY COUNTRY LEVEL CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION POPULATION SHARE POOR POLICY FOOD POVERTY RURAL AREA POLICY MAKERS CHRONICALLY POOR DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION HOUSEHOLD DATA INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS DEVELOPING WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION ABSOLUTE POVERTY REGIONAL PRICE RURAL REGIONAL CONTEXT MIDDLE CLASS HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ECONOMICS QUALITY OF LIFE CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION POOR POPULATION PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS WELFARE MEASURES POVERTY SITUATION REGIONS GROWTH RATE WAR EXTREME POVERTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINE POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY REGIONAL AVERAGES HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PRO-POOR GROWTH POVERTY DYNAMICS POLICY RESEARCH POVERTY RATE POOR PRIMARY EDUCATION WELFARE MEASURE INDICATORS OF POVERTY DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS POLITICAL INSTABILITY RURAL RESIDENCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY INCOME GROUPS INEQUALITY GROWTH POOR HOUSEHOLDS
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Middle East and North Africa | Middle East | North Africa
2016-04-26T15:09:58Z | 2016-04-26T15:09:58Z | 2016-03-10

This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle-class status in countries in the Middle East and North Africa, before and after the Arab Spring transitions, using objective and subjective welfare measures. Absent panel data, the analysis employs state-of-the-art synthetic panel techniques using repeated cross sections of expenditure data from household surveys and subjective well-being data from value surveys, which were conducted during the 2000s and the Arab Spring period. The objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. Subjective well-being dynamics suggest negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower than average chances for upward mobility, and greater than average chances for downward mobility according to both types of welfare measures.

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