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Can We Measure Resilience? A Proposed Method and Evidence from Countries in the Sahel

ACCESS TO CREDIT ACCESS TO INFRASTRUCTURE ADEQUATE NUTRITION AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURAL INPUTS AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION ARID TROPICS ASSET OWNERSHIP ASSET SALES ASSETS BASE YEAR BORROWING CHILD HEALTH CHRONIC POVERTY CHRONICALLY POOR CITIZENS CIVIL WAR CLIMATE CHANGE CONFLICT CONSUMPTION DATA CONSUMPTION LEVELS CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING COUNTERFACTUAL CREDIT CAPACITY CREDIT MARKET CREDIT MARKET CONSTRAINTS CREDIT MARKETS DEBT DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION DEPENDENCY RATIO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISCOUNT RATE DIVERSIFICATION DRINKING WATER DROUGHT ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC AGENTS ECONOMIC CRISES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC RESEARCH EDUCATIONAL LEVEL EMPLOYMENT STATUS ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY EXPECTED UTILITY EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT EARNINGS EXTREME POVERTY FAMILY PLANNING FAMILY RELATIONSHIPS FARM ACTIVITIES FARM INCOME FARM SYSTEMS FARMERS FERTILITY FERTILITY RATES FINANCIAL CRISIS FIREWOOD FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD INSECURITY FOOD POVERTY FOOD SECURITY FREE ASSET FUTURE RESEARCH GENDER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GOOD GOVERNANCE GROUP ACCOUNTS GROWTH RATE HEALTH CARE HOUSEHOLD BUDGET HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD HEAD HOUSEHOLD HEAD AGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY HOUSEHOLDS HOUSING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT HUNGER INSURANCE INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME SHOCKS INCOME SMOOTHING INDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLDS INEQUALITY INFORMAL INSURANCE INSURANCE MARKETS INTEREST RATE INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INVESTMENT PLANS LEVEL OF POVERTY LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION LEVELS OF EDUCATION LIMITED ACCESS LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES LIVING CONDITIONS LIVING STANDARDS LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MALNUTRITION MARGINAL UTILITY MARITAL STATUS MARKET CONSTRAINTS NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATURAL DISASTERS NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF GIRLS NUMBER OF PEOPLE NUTRITION OLD AGE PERMANENT INCOME POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR HOUSEHOLDS POOR POPULATION POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE PRIMARY EDUCATION PRODUCTIVE ASSETS PROGRESS PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PUBLIC SAFETY NETS PUBLIC SERVICES RADIO REGIONAL DUMMIES REGIONAL STUDIES REMITTANCES REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH RESOURCE CONSTRAINT RISK AVERSION RISK MANAGEMENT RISK SHARING RISK-AVERSE INDIVIDUALS RURAL RURAL CREDIT RURAL ECONOMY RURAL HOUSEHOLD RURAL HOUSEHOLDS SAFETY NET SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SECONDARY EDUCATION SEX SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL NETWORK SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIAL TENSIONS SOURCE OF DRINKING WATER SOURCES OF INCOME TELEVISION TRANSITION ECONOMIES TV UTILITY FUNCTION VILLAGE VILLAGE ECONOMIES VILLAGES VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WAR WEALTH WELFARE INDICATORS WELFARE LEVEL WELFARE MEASURE WELFARE MEASURES
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Africa | Burkina Faso | Niger | Nigeria | Senegal
2015-02-03T15:48:32Z | 2015-02-03T15:48:32Z | 2015-01

Although resilience has become a popular concept in studies of poverty and vulnerability, it has been difficult to obtain a credible measure of resilience. This difficulty is because the data required to measure resilience, which involves observing household outcomes over time after every exposure to a shock, are usually unavailable in many contexts. This paper proposes a new method for measuring household resilience using readily available cross section data. Intuitively, a household is considered resilient if there is very little difference between the pre- and post-shock welfare. By obtaining counterfactual welfare for households before and after a shock, households are classified as chronically poor, non-resilient, and resilient. This method is applied to four countries in the Sahel. It is found that Niger, Burkina Faso, and Northern Nigeria have high percentages of chronically poor: respectively, 48, 34, and 27 percent. In Senegal, only 4 percent of the population is chronically poor. The middle group, the non-resilient, accounts for about 70 percent of the households in Senegal, while in the other countries it ranges between 34 and 38 percent. Resilient households account for about 33 percent in all countries except Niger, where the share is around 18 percent.

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