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Working Paper

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco

GROWTH RATE MERCHANDISE EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKETS ECONOMIC GROWTH PRODUCTION STOCK STRUCTURAL CHANGE INCOME SALES CHEMICAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDUSTRY PRODUCERS GDP PER CAPITA EXPORTS SERVICES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS INCENTIVES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY VARIABLES WAGE DIFFERENTIALS PRICE INPUTS WEALTH MERCHANDISE TRADE TRENDS DEVELOPMENT INFLUENCE MARGINAL PRODUCTS IRON PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXPORT GROWTH BRANDS ANIMAL OILS PER CAPITA INCOME TEXTILE INDUSTRY CONSTRUCTION EXCHANGE RATES NATURAL RESOURCES PRODUCTS MONOPOLY INCREASING RETURNS INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT MARKETS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT TRADE POLICIES INCOME LEVELS INCOME LEVELS RESEARCH IMPORTS PRODUCT BASKET OF GOODS NATURAL RESOURCES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT EXPORT MARKETS TRADE POLICIES PRODUCTION INPUTS TAXES HUMAN CAPITAL VALUE ADDED INTERNATIONAL TRADE MERCHANDISE EXPORTS FUTURE VALUE FATS COMPETITIVENESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DEMAND SUSTAINABLE USE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AGRICULTURE EXCHANGE RATES MARKET SHARE MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL DIVERSIFICATION MERCHANDISE EXPORT STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUSTAINABLE USE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TRADE GDP EXPORT‐LED GROWTH GOODS LAND THEORY MARKET SHARE GROWTH RATE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE TANNING MEAT SUPPLY WAGE DIFFERENTIALS INVESTMENTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE VALUE ADDED GDP PER CAPITA COMMODITIES MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES INCREASING RETURNS MARGINAL PRODUCTS COMMODITY GROWTH POTENTIAL WORLD MARKET ECONOMIC GROWTH SERVICE PRICES PRODUCTION INPUTS MERCHANDISE EXPORT DEVELOPMENT POLICY SUGAR
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa | Morocco
2015-11-05T15:46:58Z | 2015-11-05T15:46:58Z | 2015-10

Drawing on international trade data, this paper uses the product space approach to analyze changes in Morocco’s goods exports in 1990–2010 and future export priorities. The level of Morocco’s gross domestic product and its moderate growth match the predictions of product space analysis, informed by changes in the income potential of Morocco’s export basket, reflecting relatively strong capabilities (a high density) in products with relatively low potentials in income and diversification. Morocco’s peripheral position in the product space map matches its slow growth and points to the difficulty of diversification into more sophisticated products. Encouraging changes since 1990 include the development of a revealed comparative advantage for medium- and high-tech manufactures, which in 2010 represented around 40 percent of total goods exports. However, the number of goods involved is relatively small and this transformation has not sufficed to raise per capita growth to the average for middle-income countries. Export projections up to 2025 suggest that future developments will follow the trends of the past. Among sectors, high growth is likely for phosphate-based fertilizer exports. However, like edible oil products, which also may grow rapidly, phosphates are hampered by low income and diversification potentials. Along with various other manufactured products, electronics and the automotive industry are promising sectors that may offer more lasting positive contributions to Morocco’s future development. Beyond goods, Morocco’s policy makers should also consider the potential contributions of service exports, which in recent years have enjoyed rapid growth.

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