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Working Paper

The Impact of Syrians Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market

WAGE IMPACT JOBS EMPLOYMENT IMMIGRANT EMPLOYMENT RATE BASIC SERVICES UNEMPLOYMENT RATES EMPLOYMENT PATTERNS WORKING-AGE POPULATION PRELIMINARY EVIDENCE SKILLED WORKERS RETIREMENT PREVIOUS SECTION SCHOOLING PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INFLUX OF REFUGEES EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS ATTENDANCE RATES EDUCATION REFORMS LABOR FORCE NUMBER OF REFUGEES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES HIGH SCHOOL HEALTH CARE IMMIGRANTS WAGE LOSSES HIGHER EDUCATION JOB FEMALE EMPLOYMENT AGE CATEGORIES POLICY DISCUSSIONS DISPLACEMENT EFFECT EMPLOYMENT RATES LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET IMPACT NATIONAL LEVEL NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMPLOYMENT TRENDS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE KNOWLEDGE NATIVE WORKERS LABOR MARKET RIGHT TO WORK FORCED MIGRATION REGULAR JOBS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT DISPLACEMENT WORKER HOST COUNTRIES WORLD CONFERENCE SECONDARY SCHOOL UNEMPLOYED MIGRATION ECONOMIC CHANGES EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES TEMPORARY PROTECTION FORMAL LABOR MARKET EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION SOCIAL SECURITY CULTURAL CHANGE SCHOOL COMPLETION LABOR PRIMARY SCHOOL MIGRANTS WAGE INCREASE MORTALITY REGULAR WORKERS RESPECT PROGRESS WAGE GAINS UNEMPLOYMENT REGULAR” EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE WAGES HUMAN CAPITAL FOOD SECURITY WORKERS LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS LOCAL LABOR MARKETS PRESENT EVIDENCE VALUES SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS EDUCATION REFORM POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER AVERAGE WAGE AGE GROUPS FLOWS OF PEOPLE EMPLOYMENT STATUS REFUGEE LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES JOB CREATION SCHOOL CHILDREN REFUGEES EARNING POPULATIONS LABOR MARKET INDICATORS JOB OFFERS REGULAR EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EFFECT HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES POLICY MANAGEMENT REFUGEE CAMPS PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES POPULATION MOVEMENTS UNITED NATIONS HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES LABOUR FORCE EDUCATION WARS SUBSTITUTION EFFECT WAR HOST COUNTRY EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITY HUMAN RESOURCES DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP IMMIGRATION INTERNAL MIGRATION EMPLOYEE ECONOMIC TRENDS YOUNG PEOPLE POPULATION LABOR SUPPLY WAGE EFFECTS INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT LOCAL LABOR MARKET POLICY RESEARCH CIVIL WAR PRIMARY EDUCATION WOMEN LABOUR LABOR MARKETS HEALTH CONSEQUENCES SCHOOL REFUGEE POPULATION DEVELOPMENT POLICY EMPLOYEES
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Europe and Central Asia | Middle East and North Africa | Syrian Arab Republic | Turkey
2015-09-23T17:13:50Z | 2015-09-23T17:13:50Z | 2015-08

Civil war in Syria has resulted in more than four million refugees fleeing the country, of which 1.8 million have found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee-hosting country worldwide. This paper combines newly available data on the 2014 distribution of Syrian refugees across subregions of Turkey with the Turkish Labour Force Survey, to assess the impact on Turkish labor market conditions. Using a novel instrument, the analysis finds that the refugees, who overwhelmingly do not have work permits, result in the large-scale displacement of informal, low-educated, female Turkish workers, especially in agriculture. While there is net displacement, the inflow of refugees also creates higher-wage formal jobs, allowing for occupational upgrading of Turkish workers. Average Turkish wages have increased primarily as the composition of the employed has changed because of the inflow of refugees.

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