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Working Paper

Use of Catastrophe Risk Models in Assessing Sovereign Food Security for Risk Transfer

FOOD PRICE SAFETY NET PROGRAMS RISKS FOOD NEEDS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY POVERTY LINE ECONOMIC GROWTH FOOD FOR ALL RISK REDUCTION FAMINES GLOBAL MARKETS FOOD UTILIZATION INCOME POVERTY RATES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION REDUCING HUNGER NUTRITIOUS FOODS ACCESS TO IRRIGATION LIVESTOCK RESEARCH RURAL POOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME DEATH FOOD AID FOOD POLICY RURAL LIVELIHOODS NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY IFPRI POOR PEOPLE SMALL SCALE FARMERS HUNGER FOOD SECURITY ISSUES RURAL POVERTY RATE RURAL POPULATION RURAL POOR CONFLICT CROP YIELD MEASURES REGION INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HOUSEHOLD INCOME MAIZE CROP YIELD SAVINGS CROP PRODUCTION INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES RURAL HOUSEHOLDS FARMING PRACTICES MARKET DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY FOOD POLICY RESEARCH FOOD PRICE GROUNDNUT FOOD SUMMIT NATURAL DISASTERS CROP YIELDS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HAZARD ARID LANDS FOOD‐SECURITY AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FOOD AVAILABILITY FOOD PRODUCTION FARMERS FAMINE FOOD AID FOOD PRODUCTION MARKET PRICE FOOD BUYERS FOOD ITEMS FOOD ACCESS CROP YIELDS HOUSEHOLD LEVEL STAPLE FOODS MARKET ANALYSIS FOOD SECURITY FOOD INSECURITY FOOD EMERGENCY CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHT SMALL‐SCALE FARMERS FOOD ASSISTANCE LOCAL MARKET VULNERABLE GROUPS AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE NUTRITION SECURITY FARMING HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POVERTY RATES RURAL POVERTY CANADA AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FOOD EXPENDITURE AGRICULTURE FOOD SHORTAGE MALNUTRITION RURAL NUTRITION WFP LAND SIZE FOOD AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURAL INPUTS FOOD SHORTAGE INSURANCE FOOD INSECURITY GROUNDNUTS HUMAN RIGHTS FOOD CRISIS WORLD FOOD SUMMIT SUBSISTENCE FARMERS IRRIGATION SMALLHOLDER FARMING RURAL AREAS POVERTY REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION DROUGHT RISK AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES FOOD SUPPLY FOOD‐DEFICIT FEED REGIONAL EFFORTS FOOD AVAILABILITY FARM LABOUR RURAL POVERTY RATES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY FOOD SECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT STAPLE FOOD NEEDS FOOD POLICY RESEARCH LIVELIHOODS POOR FOOD SECURITY STATUS RISK MANAGEMENT MARKET DEVELOPMENT WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME FOOD PRICES RURAL DEVELOPMENT FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS FOODS FOOD STAPLES
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Africa
2015-07-20T14:59:08Z | 2015-07-20T14:59:08Z | 2015-07

This paper discusses how catastrophe crop risk models can be used to assess food security needs at the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. The rationale for a system to evaluate food security needs at the national level is discussed. The role of technology and remote sensing data availability as an enabler of catastrophe crop risk models is discussed followed by a description of the framework of catastrophe crop models for droughts, representing the peril for which catastrophe models have had the most success. The integration of the output of catastrophe crop models with a food security vulnerability assessment model is described next. Recent advances in analytical modeling of various types of shocks in assessing food security are described but the operational use of these analytical models in the development of food security assessment for risk transfer is seen to be limited for now because of the complexity of these analytical models. The food security vulnerability modeling in the African Risk Capacity, ARC, model is then described as showing a practical solution to the complex problem of assessing food security via a model. Lastly, the challenges faced in risk transfer of sovereign food security risks are discussed.

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