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GCC Knowledge Note : Global Economic Trends

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX BOND FUNDS MONETARY POLICY MERCHANDISE UNCERTAINTIES BUFFERS BASIS POINTS IMPORT GROWTH OIL PRICE ECONOMIC GROWTH GOVERNMENT FINANCES FISCAL DEFICITS SALES INTEREST EMERGING MARKET BOND ASSET PRICES IMPORT EMERGING ECONOMIES EXCHANGE GOVERNMENT REVENUES SUPPLIES BOND SPREADS CONSUMER GOODS LABOR FORCE PRODUCER PRICES ASSET EXPORTERS REVENUES CDS FISCAL POLICY BONDS DEVALUATION MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS PRICE TAX REFERENDUM BOND YIELDS RESERVE INFLATION INTERNATIONAL BANK MERCHANDISE TRADE RETAIL EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES BUDGET LABOR MARKET OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES OIL PRICES GLOBAL ECONOMY RE-EXPORTS CURRENCY EXPORT GROWTH ADVANCED ECONOMIES FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES FINANCES IMPORT DEMAND EXCHANGE RATES INTEREST RATES SOVEREIGN BOND EMERGING MARKET CAPITAL OUTFLOWS MARKETS INFLATIONARY PRESSURE SOVEREIGN RATING DEFICITS AGRICULTURAL PRICES PRODUCT RESERVES REAL CONSUMPTION EQUITIES FINANCE EXPORT REVENUES MARKET ECONOMIES FLOATING REGIMES PRICE INFLATION FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE RATE OF INFLATION EXPENDITURE GOVERNMENT BUDGETS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INFLATION EXPECTATIONS CONSUMPTION FEDERAL RESERVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES SURPLUSES TOTAL EXPORTS VOLATILITY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET PRICES VALUE TRADE GROWTH PRODUCER PRICE BUDGETS FIXED INVESTMENT PURCHASING POWER DEMAND EQUITY FUNDS CONSUMER PRICE ECONOMY CAPITAL FLOWS ISSUANCE CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION CURRENCY DEVALUATION FIXED EXCHANGE RATES SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS DEMAND INDICATORS ASSETS MARKET DEFAULT FOREIGN EXCHANGE ENERGY PRICES REAL EXPORTS DOMESTIC DEMAND CURRENCIES FORWARD RATE GOODS INVESTOR EQUITY MARKETS FINANCIAL MARKET STOCKS OIL EXPORTERS INVESTMENT BOND DOMESTIC CREDIT PUBLIC FINANCES EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY SUPPLY PURCHASING CAPITAL INFLOWS UNCERTAINTY REVENUE COMMODITY MARKETS WORLD TRADE CONSUMER PRICES CAPITAL FLOW SWAPS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE CONTROLS FOOD PRICES REMITTANCES PRICE INDEX COMMODITY PRICES CAPITAL ACCOUNT PRICES EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES SWAP ECONOMIES CONSOLIDATION
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Middle East and North Africa
2016-06-06T17:22:01Z | 2016-06-06T17:22:01Z | 2016

Global GDP growth remains lackluster, at an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015, down from 2.6 percent in 2014. This performance reflects sluggish world trade, particularly merchandise trade, and persistently weak commodity prices. These trends are contributing to subdued inflation in advanced economies and commodity-importing emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), while consumer prices are elevated or accelerating in many commodity-exporting EMDEs. Despite the headwinds to growth, financial conditions in EMDEs have improved somewhat since the start of 2016. Asset prices and capital flows have rebounded, while bond spreads have receded. EMDE exchange rates have rallied somewhat against the U.S. dollar after plunging during the past three years. Oil prices have risen from January lows, although they remain low versus historical levels due to bothsupply and demand factors. Economic performance in large emerging markets—including multiyear contractions in Brazil and Russia and continued rebalancing in China could set back any improvement in the pace of global growth in 2016. With their high dependence on the oil sector for government and export revenues, the prolonged period of low oil prices continues to have detrimental impacts on GCC economies. Budget rebalancing is underway, but further fiscal consolidation is likely in the medium term given that oil prices are expected to recover only gradually. Slowing growth in GCC countries stands to generate negative pillovers for oil-importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa through trade, investment, and remittances channels.

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