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Working Paper

Seasonality in Local Food Markets and Consumption : Evidence from Tanzania

JOBS CREDIT MARKETS STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION CAPITAL MARKETS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES HOUSEHOLD SIZE SEASONAL FACTOR SUBSISTENCE SUBSTITUTION PRICE STABILIZATION STOCK SALES FOOD CONSUMPTION CALORIC CONSUMPTION PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND RURAL POOR DOMESTIC MARKET CASSAVA FOOD PRICES FOOD POLICY RURAL LIVELIHOODS IFPRI WORLD MARKETS AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS PRICE FOOD POLICY PRICE STABILIZATION RURAL POOR CALORIC INTAKE PRICE VOLATILITY RETAIL REGION POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE VARIATION GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY MAIZE FOOD MARKETS YAMS FOOD EXPENDITURE CEREALS PRICE THEORY RURAL HOUSEHOLDS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DATES PRICE CHANGES FOOD PRICE PRICE VOLATILITY COOKING SURPLUS PRODUCTS SEASONAL FACTORS FOOD PRODUCERS MARKETING MARKETS POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS BARS CALORIC INTAKE FOOD EXPENDITURES FOOD AVAILABILITY PRODUCT FARMERS STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION FOOD PRODUCTS CALORIE GAP COMMODITY PRICE POOR INFRASTRUCTURE FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD BUYERS EXPENDITURE COPING MECHANISMS STAPLE FOODS CONSUMPTION SUBSTITUTE REGIONAL MOVEMENTS FOOD SECURITY FOOD EXPENDITURES VOLATILITY REGIONAL DUMMIES VILLAGE‐LEVEL VALUE SEASONAL FACTORS FOOD CONSUMPTION TUBERS DEMAND MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY FOOD EXPENDITURE PRICE CHANGES EXPENDITURES AGRICULTURE PRICE FLUCTUATIONS FOOD SHORTAGE MALNUTRITION SALE AVERAGE PRICE REGIONAL MARKETS NUTRITION MARKET RETAIL PRICES FOOD HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION FOOD DEMAND POLICY GROUNDNUTS RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL AREAS POTATOES REGIONS POST‐HARVEST POOR HOUSEHOLDS RURAL AREAS MONOPOLIES POVERTY BANANAS SUPPLY MARKET DEMAND SWEET POTATOES ABSOLUTE TERMS MARKET POWER CALORIC CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION WHEAT REGIONAL MARKETS FOOD AVAILABILITY WAREHOUSES FOOD PRODUCT MARKET INTEGRATION RICE FOOD BUYERS HOUSEHOLD WELFARE PRICE VARIATIONS FOOD PRICES FOODS REMOTE AREAS PULSES FOOD STAPLES REGIONAL CAPITALS INTERNATIONAL MARKETS PRICES SPREAD STORAGE POOR HOUSEHOLDS
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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Tanzania
2016-01-12T20:57:16Z | 2016-01-12T20:57:16Z | 2015-12

This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of monthly food prices from 20 markets and three years of nationally representative household panel surveys from Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are introduced to measure the seasonal gap. When samples are short and seasonality is poorly defined, they produce less upward bias than the common dummy variable approach. On average, the seasonal gap for maize prices is estimated to be 27 percent; it is 15 percent for rice. In both cases it is two and a half to three times higher than in the international reference market. Food price seasonality is not a major contributor to food price volatility, but it does translate into seasonal variation in caloric intake of about 10 percent among poor urban households and rural net food sellers. Rural net food-buying households appear able to smooth their consumption. The disappearance of seasonality from Africas development debate seems premature.

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