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Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder : An Empirical Study of Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities

ADULT POPULATION ALGORITHM ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICTS CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT CITY POPULATION CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL WAR DEMOCRACY DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION FAMILIES FAMILY UNIT FERTILITY FERTILITY TRANSITION GANGS GENDER BIAS GENDER DIFFERENCES HEALTH CARE HIGH FERTILITY LEVELS HOUSING HUMAN CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL AGENDA INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW JOB CREATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR MIGRANTS LABOUR FORCE LARGE CITIES LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF EDUCATION MALE YOUTH MASCULINITY MIGRANT MIGRANTS MIGRATION MORTALITY MORTALITY DECLINE NATIONAL LEVEL NUMBER OF DEATHS OLD MALES PEACE POLICY RESEARCH POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER POLITICAL CHANGE POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL PARTICIPATION POPULATION ACTION POPULATION ACTION INTERNATIONAL POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT POPULATION DYNAMICS POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION INFORMATION POPULATION PRESSURE POPULATION SIZE POPULOUS COUNTRIES PROGRESS PROVISION OF SERVICES RATES OF GROWTH RURAL AREAS RURAL POPULATION RURAL YOUTH SECONDARY EDUCATION SECURITY CONCERN SEX SKILL DEVELOPMENT SKILLS DEVELOPMENT SLUM AREAS SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL INEQUALITIES SOCIAL RESEARCH SUBURBS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TERTIARY EDUCATION UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION URBAN URBAN AREAS URBAN CENTERS URBAN DEVELOPMENT URBAN DWELLERS URBAN GROWTH URBAN GROWTH RATES URBAN MIGRATION URBAN POPULATION URBAN POPULATION GROWTH URBAN POPULATIONS URBAN YOUTH URBANIZATION VIOLENCE WAGES WARS WORLD POPULATION YOUNG MALE YOUNG MALES YOUNG MEN YOUNG PEOPLE YOUNG PERSONS YOUNG POPULATIONS YOUNG WOMEN YOUTH GROUPS YOUTH MOVEMENTS YOUTH POPULATION YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
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South Asia | Africa | East Asia and Pacific
2012-03-19T19:13:31Z | 2012-03-19T19:13:31Z | 2009-11-01

By 2050, two-thirds of the world s population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in urban populations will take place in the least developed countries. This presents many governments with considerable challenges related to urban governance and the provision of services and opportunities to a burgeoning urban population. Among the concerns is that large youth bulges in urban centers could be a source of political instability and violence. Here, we assess this claim empirically using newly collected data on city-level urban social disorder, ranging from non-violent actions, such as demonstrations and strikes, to violent political actions, such as riots, terrorism, and armed conflict. The dataset covers 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa for 1960-2006. The study also utilizes a new United Nations Population Division dataset on urban populations by age and sex. The study further considers factors that could condition the effect of age structure, in particular the level of informal employment, economic growth, education, and gender imbalances. The analysis finds that large male youth bulges aged 15-24 are not generally associated with increased risks of either violent or non-violent social disturbance. Furthermore, the proxy measures of "youth exclusion" do not seem to increase the risk that large urban male youth bulges are associated with either form of disturbance. However, several other factors that may be associated with higher levels of youth exclusion - notably absence of democratic institutions, low economic growth, and low levels of secondary educational attainment - are significantly and robustly associated with increasing levels of urban social disturbance.

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