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World Bank, Washington, DC
Africa | Burkina Faso
2019-02-15T20:40:03Z | 2019-02-15T20:40:03Z | 2019-02-07

This joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2018 Article IV consultation and first review of the three-year program supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF). It is based on end-2017 debt data and the latest methodology underpinning the LIC DSF, which triggered an improvement in debt indicator thresholds. External risk of debt distress in Burkina Faso remains moderate. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds under the baseline scenario. In line with the Staff Report, the baseline scenario is anchored on an overall fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP from 2019. In a customized scenario meant to illustrate fiscal and external risks, two thresholds are breached. The overall public debt does not breach the relevant benchmark in the baseline and Burkina Faso is assessed as having a moderate risk of public debt distress, as the external debt risk rating is moderate. Burkina Faso would need to: (i) maintain a sound macro-fiscal framework; (ii) implement structural reforms to diversify its export base; and (iii) limit non-concessional borrowing to prevent a deterioration of its debt sustainability outlook.

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