Identifying and characterising the business cycle: the case of Morocco

Abstract

This paper analyses the key features of the Moroccan business cycles during the period 1980:q1-2012:q1. The chronologies in classical and growth cycles, expansion and contraction phases, and full cycles in real gross domestic product are identified. Using the modified Bry-Boschan algorithm, eight business cycles were found and the ninth is not yet achieved. Then, the main features in these cycles are analysed by applying the method of Harding and Pagan [2002. "Dissecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation." Journal of Monetary Economics 49: 365-381]. This method has shown that the Moroccan economy characterised by the average cumulative gain is more important than the cumulative loss and by the domination of expansion phases.