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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

This paper documents the specification of a model that was constructed to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies. Key features of the model include external and fiscal sectors, which allow assessment of external and public debt in a unified framework; public and external debt, which both have an explicit maturity structure along with a distinction ...

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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

I test whether inflation targeting (IT) enhances transparency using inflation forecast data for 11 IT adoption countries. IT adoption promotes convergence in forecast errors, suggesting that it enhances transparency. This effect is robust to dropping observations, is strengthened by using instrumental variable estimation to eliminate mean-reversion, and is absent i...

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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output, prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate for Kenya using data during 1997–2005. Based on techniques commonly used in the vector autoregression literature, the main results suggest that an exogenous increase in the short-term interest rate tends to be followed by a decline in prices and appr...

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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

The effects of the adoption of the IMF's International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Data Template on nominal exchange rate volatility are investigated for 48 countries. Estimation of panel data models indicates that nominal exchange rate volatility decreases following dissemination of reserves template data while the effects of indebtedness and reserve a...

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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

The past two decades have seen a decline in labor's share of national income in several industrial countries. This paper analyzes the role of three factors in explaining movements in labor's share--factor-biased technological progress, openness to trade, and changes in employment protection--using a panel of 18 industrial countries over 1960-2000. Since most studie...

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IMF Staff Country Reports
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Bangladesh is reducing poverty and making headway toward meeting its MDGs. However, political considerations are exerting an increasing influence on economic policy decisions. The overall fiscal balance has been kept below budget and program targets, notwithstanding sizable revenue slippages. Monetary policy has been gradually tightened, and the exchange rate has s...

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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Many Asian countries (such as China, Singapore, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and the Philippines) will experience a significant aging of their populations during the next several decades. This paper explores how these aging Asian countries are addressing and anticipating the challenges of an aging society. It suggests that Asia's preparedness for an...

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IMF Staff Country Reports
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

In 2005, the overall macroeconomic performance was broadly satisfactory, notwithstanding an increase in inflation. All performance criteria were met. Structural reforms advanced, and delays in preparing feasibility studies for restructuring the airport and seaport authorities are being addressed. Economic performance in 2005 was broadly satisfactory, although infla...

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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

The labor participation rate in Slovenia has been lower than in the EU-15 (the members states prior to May 2004), particularly for the low-income and older individuals. Using simulations of tax and social benefits and public pensions, the paper shows how the current tax, welfare, and pension systems create disincentives to work among these groups. The paper finds t...

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IMF Working Papers
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output, prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate for Kenya using data during 1997–2005. Based on techniques commonly used in the vector autoregression literature, the main results suggest that an exogenous increase in the short-term interest rate tends to be followed by a decline in prices and appr...

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IMF Staff Country Reports
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

El Salvador has made major strides on several fronts since the peace accords of 1992. The near-term outlook has strengthened, although challenges remain. The authorities are intended to limit tax exemptions and subsidies, and raise priority of banking reforms this year. Discussions focused on policies to enhance growth and social progress within the framework of fo...

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IMF Staff Country Reports
2006
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Estonia’s commitment to free markets and prudent financial policies has paid off handsomely. Demand pressures and rapid productivity growth have produced strong wage increases and large employment gains. Inflation, while moderate for a fast-converging economy, remains above the Maastricht threshold, and has been pushed up in recent months by rises in nontraded good...

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